This divorce is an eyewash : TOP DRAWER
Strange bedfellow is an adage that is often used in political circles when two political parties with opposite ideologies or deep differences come together and form an unnatural alliance or coalition. However, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) have always been seen as natural allies. While Akalis are supposed to attract Sikh voters, the BJP due to its core pro-Hindu ideology thrives on the support of the urban non-Sikh Hindu voters in Punjab. The two together have enjoyed fruits of the alliance on several occasions with BJP piggy-riding the Akalis as a junior partner in power in Punjab. In return, BJP always ensured that the Akalis were represented adequately whenever BJP formed the government at the centre.
All appeared honky-dory until last week when Harsimrat Kaur Badal announced her resignation as a cabinet minister in the Narendra Modi government in protest against the contentious three farm bills subsequently adopted by both Houses of Parliament. “I have resigned from Union Cabinet in protest against anti-farmer ordinances and legislation. Proud to stand with farmers as their daughter & sister” Harsimrat tweeted on September 17. Harsimrat is on ordinary MP but the wife of the Akali Dal president and former Punjab deputy chief minister Sukhbir Singh Badal, and daughter in law of Parkash Singh Badal, the 92-year-old patriarch of Punjab politics, who has served as the state chief minister five times.
It was followed with the Akali Dal announcing its decision to quit the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
It is difficult to stomach Akali Dal’s claim that they quit in protest against the so-called anti-farmer legislation. The contentious bill was brought before Parliament merely to legalise an ordinance promulgated on June 5. According to the constitution, any ordinance unless adopted by Parliament automatically stands lapsed after the expiry of six months.
Where were Badals when the Modi government promulgated the ordinance in June? It is possible that they were not aware of it? It is clear that Badals did not have concern for farmers in their mind when Harsimrat resigned and Akalis parted ways with the BJP. Akalis have walked out of the NDA now with an eye on 2022 Punjab legislative assembly elections, which is barely 16 months away.
BJP as a political party may be only 40 years old. Akalis on the other hand have completed 100 years since its formation in 1920, which makes it India’s second oldest party after the Indian National Congress. While Akalis always struggled for its existence outside of Punjab, BJP has grown as a formidable force over the past 24 years since the BJP and Akalis entered into an alliance.
Akalis and Shiv Sena, besides being the oldest allies of the BJP, were also seen as natural allies. Shiv Sena broke ties with the BJP late last year and now the Akalis have turned its back on the BJP. The reason being the two regional parties were feeling suffocated and saw BJP exceptional growth as a detriment to their own existence. Uddhav Thackeray wanted to be the Maharashtra chief minister so that he can use the power for his party’s further growth. Sukhbir Singh Badal felt an association with the BJP any longer can be detrimental to his own aspirations of becoming the Punjab chief minister in 2022.
Some media reports suggest that the Akalis were perturbed with findings of an internal survey which said BJP had become unpopular amongst Punjab’s Jatt Sikh voters and farmers. Jatt Sikhs had over the years drifted away from it to the Aam Aadmi Party, which incidentally with 20 members in the 117-member state assembly is the second largest party behind the state’s ruling Congress party.
BJP on the other hand started out with its ambitions to spread its wings beyond the Hindi heartland under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Lal Krishna Advani to become a truly pan-India party. For that, they needed crutches in the form of regional parties in states where it had no or little existence. BJP earlier seen as untouchable due to its image of being a hard-core pro-Hindu party gradually became acceptable under Vajpayee and it led to the birth of the NDA. However, BJP under Narendra Modi and Amit Shah started feeling that some of its allies, including the Akali Dal had become a liability after it won a simple majority for the first time on its own in 2014 general elections.
The experiment to get rid of unwanted regional allies started that very year with the Haryana assembly elections. BJP refused to honour its commitment given during the Lok Sabha polls to the Haryana Janhit Party chief Kuldeep Bishnoi and renegaded on its promise to project him as NDA’s chief ministerial candidate. Bishnoi walked out of the NDA and it helped BJP, which for the first time ever won majority on its own in Haryana in 2014.
The tables had turned on the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra in 2014 itself when BJP won more seats in the assembly compared to its ally Shiv Sena. Shiv Sena had to agree to work under a BJP chief minister. It was the same scenario after the 2019 elections in the state. But Shiv Sena, feeling threatened, wanted the chief minister’s post. BJP did not agree and the two old allies parted ways.
The situation somehow was a bit different in Punjab. While BJP won the national elections twice in a row, winning a majority on both occasions on its own in 2014 and 2019, Punjab ducked the national trend with the BJP forced to make do with just two seats from the state in both 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In between came the 2017 Punjab assembly elections. Parkash Singh Badal government was becoming unpopular by the day, particularly over the allegations of its involvement in rampant corruption, increasing drug menace and monopolisation of business in the state. For all these, the Badal family was directly or indirectly accused of its involvements. Not surprising that several Akali leaders with close ties with Sukhbir or his brother in law Bikram Singh Majithia, younger brother of Harsimrat Kaur Badal, were seen as behind these. Buses owned by the Badal family got priority on key routes. Other private transport operators were sidelined. The state transport was running into huge losses and the transport company owned by the Badals were making money.
Punjab was the only state where a bag of sand was costlier than a bag of cement and the legal and illegal sand mining business allegedly had political patronage. The alcohol business was also allegedly controlled by this particular family. Alcohol continues to be the costliest in Punjab in India. Those who could not afford buying from authorised retail outlets were forced to turn to the illegally brewed hooch. The needle of suspicion for political and police patronage to this illegitimate business, which often ends up with tragedies and deaths point towards this family.
Badals have reasons to be worried about the three farm bills brought and passed by the Modi government. All market samitis and the middlemen who would jack up the retail prices with farmers not getting any benefits have links to this particular family. There is little surprise that Sharad Pawar and Sukhbir Singh Badal are the most upset by passage of these three farm bills, which intend to do away with the middlemen.
BJP sees a real scope for its growth in Punjab in which its association with the Akali Dal was proving to be an impediment. Aam Aadmi Party has already proved that there is space and scope for a third party in Punjab beyond the Akalis and the Congress party. BJP has reasons to eye this segment for its growth. The ongoing resentment and agitation over the farm bills in the state may be a temporary phase, or so the BJP feels, and ultimately it would be able to attract the non-Sikh and urban voters in the state.
For BJP it could prove to be good riddance. As for the Akalis, the last time they won a majority in the state was in 1997, when it was part of the Vajpayee government at the centre and a key constituent of the NDA. Since then it had always needed BJP’s support to form the government.
The two old allies are currently out to test the politically volatile waters in Punjab. Post-2022 state polls, if the situation so demands, don’t be surprised if they join hands again if together they can form the government in the state. The current divorce may be with mutual consent and the doors for a possible remarriage has been left ajar.